Dienstag, 26. Mai 2009

What drives societal collapse? Precis

Author(s): Harvey Weiss and Raymond S. Bradley

URL: http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/weiss2001.pdf

What drives societal collapse? By Harvey Weiss and Raymond S. Bradley examines the relationship between climate change and the role it played in prehistoric, ancient and pre-modern societal collapses. In addition, it studies if and how this ‘link’ is still significant today and how modern societies can avoid collapse.

Weiss and Bradley define collapse differently from Diamond, as they consider a severe change in lifestyle or culture to be equivalent to societal collapse.

Previously, it was believed that the collapse of a society was caused by a combination of social, political and economic factors. However, the study of past climate changes, that occurred abruptly and caught societies by surprise, can be considered the key reasons for societal collapse. This is because changes in climate forced a society to abandon a certain region, adopt different sustenance, and generally adapt to new circumstances.

The cases of societal collapse cited in this document support this theory. The first ‘well-documented’ societal collapse was that of the Natufian society of Southwest Asia; the society shifted from relying on hunting and gathering to using labor intensive agricultural techniques to get food. This was because there was an abrupt change in climate, from having warm and wet winters and hot and dry summers to cooler and drier conditions. In 3200-3000 B.C. the Late Uruk society collapsed suddenly; this collapse has now been linked to a severe 200 year drought that occurred at that time. Another example that is given is that of the Tiwanaku civilization of the central Andes, whose agricultural base collapsed in the 10th century due to an extended period of drought.

These examples indicate that there have been severe changes in climate in the past, and that these had a great impact on past societies. Societies were confronted with unknown weather conditions and their technological adaptations, could not counter the rapidity, extent and duration of these changes in climate. According to Weiss and Bradley, they can be considered a the main reason in causing a societies collapse.

In the past, the climate change occurred naturally and were not a product of human impact. Today, however, humans have a significant influence on rapid and extensive climate change. According to Weiss and Bradley, ‘global temperatures will rise and atmospheric circulation will change, leading to a redistribution of rainfall that is difficult to predict’. Though we have the advantage of advanced technology, we are just as vularable as the societies of the past, since we are ‘small-scale market agriculturalists’, who live in a time of worldwide population ‘overload’. We can, however, predict what will happen in the future and therefore, we can adopt countermeasures to avoid the worst case scenario.For this to occur, there must be extensive informational cooperation between nations, and strategies need to be developed to minimize impact, especially in societies that are at the greatest risk of collapse.

Montag, 25. Mai 2009

'Modern Agriculture: Its Effects on the Environment' Precis

Author(s): Nancy M. Trautmann, Keith S. Porter and Robert J. Wagenet
URL: http://pmep.cce.cornell.edu/facts-slides-self/facts/mod-ag-grw85.html


Modern Agriculture: Its Effects on the Environment, an extension by Nancy M. Trautmann, Keith S. Porter, and Robert J. Wagenet, examines the ‘evolution’ of American agriculture in brief and details the effects of modern agriculture. It focuses mainly on the problems of soil erosion and contamination of water.

American agriculture is highly efficient, as only 3% of the labor force produces all the food needed to meet domestic requirements and a percentage of international requirements. This efficiency is the result of the use of fertilizers, pesticides, the introduction of advanced farming machinery, the development of hybrid strains of a crop, and the increase in knowledge about farm management. Therefore, higher crop yields can be achieved on smaller field areas with a smaller work force. However, these modern practices have had a greater negative impact on the environment.

Soil erosion is one such problem. The removal of natural plant cover can lead to the erosion of the top soil (which holds the vital nutrients, fine soil particles and organic matter) by wind, leaving only the less fertile and absorbent subsoil behind. Certain agricultural practices, such as increased use of farm machinery and the lack of windbreaks or drainage contours on large fields contribute to the problem. However, farmers are reluctant to implement countermeasures, as the short term costs of this exceed the economic benefit to the farmer. Instead, they counter the problems of erosion, the decrease in fertility and productivity of the soils, with an increase in fertilizers and irrigation.

Soil erosion has a direct impact on water quality, as eroded soils run into rivers, clogging lakes, rivers, and reservoirs; this leads to increased flooding and to the destruction of natural habitats. The nutrients, fertilizers and pesticides the soil carries with it additionally affect water quality. This has negative health effects both on aquatic species, as well as humans, who use it as drinking water. For example, the nitrogen in soils that enter bodies of water causes an increase in algae growth; lakes are then ‘choked’ by the decaying algae. Pesticides themselves have negative effects on the environment, as they kill off both the pest and other natural species, and can lead to the development of pesticide-resistant pests.

However, rising awareness of these issues, as well as the rising costs of pesticides and fertilizers have led to an increase in research to develop more beneficial agricultural practices.

'Tokugawa Shoguns vs. Consumer Democracy' Precis


Author: Nathan Gardels
URL: http://www.digitalnpq.org/archive/2005_spring/02_diamond.html
Date Published: 2005


Nathan Gardels interview with Jared Diamond, titled Tokugawa Shoguns vs. Consumer Democracy, is about the book Collapse: How Societies choose to Fail or Survive. The interview focuses most on how societies today are responding to the environmental factors that, in the past, have led to the collapse of many societies.

According to Diamond, the risk of environmental collapse is worldwide today, as we have access to modern technology and are all interconnected due to globalization. The challenges to global sustainability all need to be addressed simultaneously, within a time frame of 50 years, in order to successfully avert environmental collapse. There are numerous environmental problems that we face today that are all interrelated; for example, deforestation and fresh water availability are major challenges today.

Currently, there is a mix of responses to these problems. For example, air and water quality in the US has improved considerably in the last 30 years. According to Diamond, ‘the ability of certain countries to adapt to new circumstances bodes well.’ Australia, for example, has planned to eradicate 99% of its agriculture and to import food from elsewhere, as their infertile soils make agriculture unproductive and expensive.

However, we live in consumerist times. Third world countries aspire to reach first world living standards; if they succeed adopting these living standards, there would be a huge increase in total human impact on the environment. As more and more Chinese families, for example, purchase cars, air pollution levels rise drastically. A country’s political system does not determine whether or not it will address environmental problems or not, and if it would succeed or not. Neither can we rely on the market to act as an instrument of change. Though it could be that a higher demand for hybrid cars would lead to an increase in the supply of hybrid cars, people and industries do not act in predictable ways, nor do they always make rational decisions.

People act against their own interests for a number of reasons. The changes that would occur, for example, conflict with their values. In addition, many do not perceive the problem as it poses no immediate threat, or because they are insulated from it. In order to successfully address these environmental problems, there needs to be a widespread need for change by the public. Though technology could solve some of these problems, it also causes a lot of them. In the end, it is up to us to make the necessary changes, to choose to avert the crisis of unsustainability, in order to avoid collapse.

Mittwoch, 13. Mai 2009

'Collapse' Precis

Ecocide – unintended ecological suicide – occurs when people destroy the environmental resources they depend on. Collapse: How Societies choose to Fail or Survive (2005), by Jared Diamond, considers this to be the one of the five key reasons for the collapses of past societies. According to Diamond, the collapse of a society is defined as ‘a drastic decrease in human population size and/or political/economic/social complexity, over a considerable area, for an extended time.’ (p. 3) Diamond outlines what he considers to be the five contributing factors that result in the collapse of a society. These factors are environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, friendly trade partners and the society’s response to its environmental problems (p. 11).

There are eight categories of human caused environmental problems that, in the worst case, have resulted in ecocide. These are: deforestation and habitat destruction, soil problems, water management problems, effects of introduced species on native species, human population growth, increased per capita impact of people, overhunting and overfishing (p. 6). In the past, a combination of many of these problems would have resulted in a societies collapse; today, there are an additional four factors that, according to Diamond, could lead to modern day collapses. These factors are the world’s finite energy resources, the ‘photosynthetic ceiling’, the impact of toxic chemicals, and ‘global warming’.

Climate change, both anthropological and natural, contributed and still contributes to a large number of environmental problems. Natural climate change, such as variations in temperature and rainfall from year to year, would have had a significant impact on a society’s survival. An extreme example was the situation of the Greenland Norse, who reached Greenland during a period of mild climate, which was good for growing hay and pasturing animals. However, a cold period known as the Little Ice age began after their arrival and lasted for 500 years. This not only made agriculture increasingly difficult but it also cut off all vital trade and communication between Greenland, Iceland and Norway, contributing to the collapse of their society. Today, states Diamond, global warming, caused by a buildup of sunlight absorbing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere such as CO2 and methane, is causing an increase in temperature. Even a small increase in temperature, could result in a decrease in agricultural productivity, as the crop growth rates decline. Additionally, ocean and sea levels would rise due to the melting of the snow and ice, which would result in the flooding of low-lying lands.

Hostile relations between neighboring societies would also have contributed to a society’s collapse. Diamond claims that the success or failure of a society in times of conflict would largely have depended on the extent of its environmental problems. For example, the military weakness of a society is the outcome of its ecological problems. Again, this factor contributed to the collapse of the Norse Greenland society; their reluctance to establish friendly relations with the Inuit inhabitants of Greenland was a disadvantage, as trade between the two peoples or the adoption of Inuit hunting techniques could have saved the Norse population in harsh times.

However, a decrease in friendly relations between neighboring societies also plays a role in the collapse of a society. Societies depend on these neighbors for trade, especially if the resources that are traded do not occur in the environment of the society. Conflict between the trade partners could lead to the discontinuation of trade, causing a deficit of resources in the society. Another problem could be that the neighboring society experiences problems of its own and suspends trade; the other society would subsequently experience severe problems. An example of this is the trade network that existed between the islands of Mangareva, Pitcairn and Henderson. Mangareva, the largest island, supplied Pitcairn with vital resources while Pitcarin supplied it with volcanic glass and fine-grained basalt to make tools. Henderson, the smallest, most hostile island also received from Mangareva, probably trading food in return. However, Mangareva discontinued trade with the two islands as it was experiencing environmental problems that caused internal unrest; Pitcairn and Henderson did not have the resources to be able to survive alone, therefore their population died out.

The final factor that contributes to the collapse of a society is the society’s response to its environmental problems; Diamond states that this is the key factor in determining a society’s fate, as a proper response could mean that the society resolves its problems. However, the response that is influenced by political, economic and social institutions and by the society’s cultural values. This is illustrated by the examples of the Easter Island society vs. the Japanese society during the Tokugawa era. Both had severe problems that had been caused by deforestation, such as the shortage of timber for making fire, building houses, transport, etc. However, the Easter Islanders never adopted any policies on controlling the rate of deforestation; the end result was, that since all their trees were gone, many wild food sources went extinct, they no longer had timber to build and make tools, the productivity of farming decreased drastically and finally, there was wide spread starvation and a subsequent population crash. In Japan, on the other hand, the Tokugawa shogunate became aware of the consequences of deforestation and therefore developed a strict system of wood management and re-growth.

Diamond states that today’s modern societies are just as likely to collapse, due to a combination of these factors, as societies in the past. Though we have the advantage of hindsight and advanced technology, we also live in very interdependent times; the weakening, or even collapse, of one society today could severely affect all the others that it is connected to. In addition, big businesses today have a much larger impact than the small farming societies of the past. If a society today fails to anticipate an oncoming problem, fails to perceive a problem that arose, fails to attempt to solve a problem once it has been perceived or the attempts to solve it are not sufficient and too late, then it is possible to make the same, seemingly obvious mistakes that have been made by societies in the past.